UA 2004 · EWR → SFO

took off 4:17 PM ET · landed 6:53 PM PT (scheduled 4:09 PM ET → 7:20 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2004 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?