UA 2018 · IAD → BTV

took off 10:41 PM ET · expected to land 11:53 PM ET (scheduled 10:10 PM ET → 11:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BTV?

LIVE

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at BTV that day

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.5 mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2018 · IAD → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?