UA 201 · HNL → GUM

took off 2:51 PM HT · landed 6:31 PM ChST (scheduled 2:25 PM HT → 6:05 PM ChST)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GUM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUM

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ GUM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

GUM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 201 · HNL → GUM

Odds over time

How late did it get to GUM?