UA 2047 · LAS → SFO

took off 3:25 PM PT · landed 4:31 PM PT (scheduled 3:20 PM PT → 5:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

SFO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2047 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?