Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2051 LANDED 9:08 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2051 · MCI → SFO

took off 7:49 AM CT · landed 9:08 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.39 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2051 · MCI → SFO

Odds over time