UA 2198 · PHX → IAH

departs 4:12 PM MT · arrives 8:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

IAH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2198 · PHX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?