Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2432 LANDED 9:38 AM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2432 · SBP → SFO

took off 8:58 AM PT · landed 9:38 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SBP that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2432 · SBP → SFO

Odds over time