UA 2478 · SEA → SFO

departs 3:17 PM PT · arrives 5:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2478 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?