Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2492 LANDED 1:15 PM CT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2492 · ORD → PNS

took off 11:37 AM CT · landed 1:15 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PNS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2492 · ORD → PNS

Odds over time