Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2494 LANDED 6:55 PM PT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2494 · ORD → LAX

took off 5:05 PM CT · landed 6:55 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2494 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time