Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2603 LANDED 5:47 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2603 · SFO → CLE

took off 10:42 AM PT · landed 5:47 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2603 · SFO → CLE

Odds over time