Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2612 LANDED 8:59 PM MT, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2612 · EWR → PHX

took off 6:59 PM ET · landed 8:59 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2612 · EWR → PHX

Odds over time