Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 261 LANDED 1:52 PM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 261 · MAD → IAD

took off 11:39 AM CEST · landed 1:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MAD is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MAD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 261 · MAD → IAD

Odds over time