Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2630 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:38 PM PT, ETA 8:29 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

UA 2630 · LAS → IAD

took off 1:38 PM PT · expected to land 8:29 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +35 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2630 · LAS → IAD

Odds over time