Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 263 LANDED 5:37 PM MT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 263 · LHR → DEN

took off 3:29 PM BST · landed 5:37 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 263 · LHR → DEN

Odds over time