Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2649 LANDED 11:35 AM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

took off 11:01 AM PT · landed 11:35 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

Odds over time