Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2812 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2812 · PHX → IAH

departs 8:30 AM MT · arrives 1:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2812 · PHX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?