Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2817 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2817 · ORD → PDX

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 3:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2817 · ORD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?