Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2831 LANDED 11:16 AM PT, ~19 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2831 · SEA → SFO

took off 9:39 AM PT · landed 11:16 AM PT (scheduled 8:45 AM PT → 11:03 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2831 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?