Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3925 LANDED 9:25 AM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 3925 · SFO → ACV

took off 8:44 AM PT · landed 9:25 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ACV is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into ACV at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3925 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time