UA 431 · BZN → DEN

took off 4:47 PM MT · landed 6:09 PM MT (scheduled 4:27 PM MT → 6:29 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from BZN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 431 · BZN → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?