Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 442 LANDED 10:35 PM PT, ~3 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 442 · SFO → SAN

took off 9:22 PM PT · landed 10:35 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 442 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time