Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 454 LANDED 1:37 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 454 · IAD → CMH

took off 12:49 PM ET · landed 1:37 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 454 · IAD → CMH

Odds over time