Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 470 LANDED 5:48 PM MT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 470 · IAH → DEN

took off 4:53 PM CT · landed 5:48 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 470 · IAH → DEN

Odds over time