UA 496 · IAH → MCO

took off 2:43 PM CT · expected to land 5:40 PM ET (scheduled 2:36 PM CT → 6:14 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 496 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?