Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 499 LANDED 9:23 AM PT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

took off 7:47 AM PT · landed 9:23 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time