Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 729 LANDED 11:56 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 729 · ORD → PHL

took off 9:24 AM CT · landed 11:56 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 729 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time