Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 737 LANDED 9:35 PM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

UA 737 · SEA → SFO

took off 8:00 PM PT · landed 9:35 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±3 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 737 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time