Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 838 LANDED 10:11 AM PT, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 838 · NRT → SFO

took off · landed 10:11 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 838 · NRT → SFO

Odds over time