Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 1230 · SJC → PHX
departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.