WN 1245 · AUS → MCO

departs 6:44 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1245 · AUS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?