WN 127 · DEN → PHX

departs 7:09 PM MT · arrives 8:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 127 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?