Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1364 LANDED 3:38 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 1364 · BWI → SRQ

took off 1:34 PM ET · landed 3:38 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SRQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1364 · BWI → SRQ

Odds over time