WN 1402 · LAS → SMF

departs 7:28 PM PT · arrives 9:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

SMF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1402 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?