WN 1476 · OGG → KOA

took off 2:18 PM HT · landed 2:42 PM HT (scheduled 1:24 PM HT → 2:16 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to KOA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from OGG are often late

↑ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1476 · OGG → KOA

Odds over time

How late did it get to KOA?