Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1476 LANDED 1:08 PM HT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 1476 · PHX → OGG

took off 10:32 AM MT · landed 1:08 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

OGG (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1476 · PHX → OGG

Odds over time