WN 1574 · PHX → STL

departs 5:32 PM MT · arrives 10:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1574 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?