Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1581 LANDED 8:20 PM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 1581 · OAK → SNA

took off 7:16 PM PT · landed 8:20 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1581 · OAK → SNA

Odds over time