Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1583 LANDED 1:42 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 1583 · DEN → OAK

took off 12:39 PM MT · landed 1:42 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1583 · DEN → OAK

Odds over time