Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1591 LANDED 2:13 PM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 1591 · SMF → LAX

took off 1:14 PM PT · landed 2:13 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1591 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time