Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1599
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 1599 · PHX → TUS
departs 1:25 PM MT · arrives 2:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 24%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.