Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 15
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 15 · BWI → HOU
departs 2:10 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at HOU that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 8.28571 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.