Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 1651 · LAS → SMF
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 20%
Sat 10/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.