Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1742
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 1742 · BWI → BUF
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 20%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.