Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1782 LANDED 8:39 AM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 1782 · OAK → LAX

took off 7:45 AM PT · landed 8:39 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ 7am departures from OAK are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1782 · OAK → LAX

Odds over time