Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 1946 · STL → BWI
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.