Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2154 LANDED 3:28 PM PT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 2154 · PHX → SNA

took off 2:35 PM MT · landed 3:28 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2154 · PHX → SNA

Odds over time