Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2181 LANDED 9:50 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 2181 · BWI → JAX

took off 8:20 PM ET · landed 9:50 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2181 · BWI → JAX

Odds over time