Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2186 LANDED 4:53 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 2186 · TPA → BNA

took off 4:24 PM ET · landed 4:53 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2186 · TPA → BNA

Odds over time