WN 2204 · LAS → MCO

departs 10:37 PM PT · arrives 5:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2204 · LAS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?